Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Diminishing Oil Revenue

I had an oral question on diminishing oil revenue slated at No.19 today (it'll never reach that number ;-)) which I've just received the written reply, which I'll post below.

My question to the Finance Minister was:
...apakah strategi dan langkah-langkah Kerajaan untuk menghadapi masalah kekurangan hasil daripada pendapatan industri minyak apabila Malaysia menjadi sebuah negara pengimpot minyak dalam 2-3 tahun dan kehabisan rizab minyak dalam masa 19 tahun?
I wrote on this topic quite a while back here. The answer was fair long as follows:
Pada tahun 2007, rizab minyak negara terus bertambah kepada 5.35 bilion tong atau mempunyai jangka hayat selama 22 tahun berikutan penemuan beberapa telaga minyak laut dalam di pesisiran luar Sabah, termasuk Kikeh.

Walau bagaimanapun, berdasarkan kepada tahap pengeluaran semasa dan jangkaan permintaan yang meningkat, Malaysia dijangka akan menjadi negara pengimpot bersih (net importer) petroleum terutamanya minyak petrol dan diesel pada tahun 2011 di mana permintaan domestik dijangka melebihi pengeluaran.

Pada tahun 2007, hasil Kerajaan berasaskan petroleum telah meningkat kepada RM51,114 juta berikutan dengan harga minyak yang tinggi, secara purata USD78.40 setong. Hasil minyak negara menyumbang 36.5% kepada jumlah hasil keseluruhan iaitu RM139,885 juta.

Kerajaan sedar akan pandangan umum bahawa dengan harga minyak yang semakin tinggi, keuntungan PETRONAS juga semakin bertambah dan keuntungan tersebut boleh digunakan untuk membiayai subsidi.

(Note: I've never asked this part of the question, answer above was "extra")

Walau bagaimanapun, petroleum merupakan sumber asli yang semakin berkurangan. Sebagai sebuah Kerajaan yang bertanggungjawab, kita sentiasa mengambil langkah berhemat dalam membelanjakan hasil petroluem untuk memberikan manfaat yang semaksimum mungkin bukan sahaja kepada generasi sekarang malah generasi akan datang (inter-generational equity). Antara langkah yang diambil untuk faedah generasi akan datang termasuklah sumbangan tahunan sebanyak RM100 juta kepada Kumpulan Wang Amanah Negara (KWAN).

Kita juga perlu menggunakan sumberminyak dengan sebaik mungkin dan mengurangkan pembazirannya. Sebagai contoh, penggunaan pengangkutan awan adalah digalakkan kerana ia bukan sahaja dapat menjimatkan petrol tetapi juga mengurangkan pencemaran udara. Subsidi bahan petroleum kini berjumlah RM45 bilion. Kerajaan sedang mengkaji semula mekanisme pemperian subsidi bagi mengelakkan ketirisan dan memastikan ianya memberi manfaat kepada golongan sasaran.

Hasil berkaitan petroleum akan terus dibelanjakan dengan bijak bagi meningkatkan potensi pertumbuhan jangka panjang ekonomi negara. Kita akan terus mengembangkan bina-upaya (capacity building) negara melalui pelaburan dalam infrastruktur fizikal dan meningkatkan lagi pembangunan modal insan dengan penekanan diberikan kepada peningkatan soft-skill. Sumber pertumbuhan baru juga diperkembangkan termasuklah dalam sektor perkhidmatan terutamanya perbankan Islam, hab halal dan out sourcing. Sekto pertanian akan terus dimodenkan melalui kegiatan meningkatkan pengeluaran, menambah nilai dan penggunaan teknologi terkini. Sementara itu, pembangunan Wilayah-Wilayah Ekonomi Koridor Johor Selatan, Utara, Pantai Timur serta Sabah dan Sarawak akan dipergiatkan.

Untuk memastikan hasil yang berterusan dan stabil, PETRONAS akan mempergiatkan lagi pengeluaran dan aktiviti cari gali minyak dan gas dalam negeri dan juga luar negara. Pelaburan akan terus dijalankan untuk menaik taraf dan membaik pulih kemudahan sedia ada dan membina kemudahan baru untuk mengekalkan tahap pengeluaran minyak negara. Di samping itu, PETRONAS akan terus menyalurkan pelaburan dalam aktiviti logistik dan maritim sera perniagaan separti petrokimia, minyak, gas dan harta tanah.
The reply certainly contained several interesting facts (figures) but overall, didn't present anything new as to how we should deal with the problem of over-reliance on oil revenue. Will discuss this more in other blog posts.

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

"Sebagai contoh, penggunaan pengangkutan awansic adalah digalakkan..."

Have you seen the cars these AMENO cheesed!cks drive?

Anonymous said...

Malaysia should start to promote Fuel Cell Car using Hydrogen instead of petrol. This will reduce petrol usage and reduce air pollution. But we need petrol station to supply hydrogen...

Anonymous said...

Is it true that Rafeah Salim tenure as VC of UM has been extended?

Anonymous said...

Mukhriz Mahathir (BN-Jerlun) said there was no attempt to hide the facts behind the May 13 incident. He said the tragedy should be seen as a "blessing".


He was referring to New Economic Policy, an affirmative action policy which favoured the bumiputera, that was introduced as a result of the May 13 incident.


"So the good that came out from such tragedy has been something that we have enjoyed even until now," argued Mukhriz.

A "BLESSING???" Dam you Mukhriz YB JERLUN. People are being killed on that day???

Anonymous said...

Maybe its time for the Government to introduce G-S-T, as a fairer tax system.

Anonymous said...

brainless reply

even a 3years old kid can answer better!

Anonymous said...

_______________________________
March 6, 2008 · Di perairan Kelantan terdapat simpanan GAS ASLI sebanyak 13 trillion kaki persegi yang sudah sedia untuk diterokai. (13,000,000,000,000). Ia cukup untuk 7 generasi rakyat Kelantan. (lebih kurang 500 tahun lamanya). Ianya terletak di Blok-Blok berikut, Blok A18 Blok B17 & C19 PM3 Sub-Blok Ular PM301 & PM302 PM303 PM311 & 312
__________________________________

I received a statement from someone called himself coming from Data Management Services(DMS)Petronas Data Management viz email.

He explained a lot through his email pertaining these ...

I'll forward that email to you if you interested.

Anonymous said...

Plus, I had a source saying that:
______________________________
actually i was involved in one of the block B17. de gas will be channeledto songkhla instead of kota bharu. i knew it was for politic reasons. buttill now, de proj was in problem. dunno wat la.
_____________________________

Anonymous said...

Mukhriz Mahathir (BN-Jerlun) said there was no attempt to hide the facts behind the May 13 incident. He said the tragedy should be seen as a "blessing".
He was referring to New Economic Policy, an affirmative action policy which favoured the bumiputera, that was introduced as a result of the May 13 incident.
"So the good that came out from such tragedy has been something that we have enjoyed even until now," argued Mukhriz.

People were killed on that day.. A "BLESSING????"

Anonymous said...

Anwar attacked over US links, plans to become PM

PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim and his plan to become prime minister came under attack in the Dewan Rakyat today.

MCPX
In his debate on the royal address, Mukhriz Mahathir (BN-Jerlun) put the spotlight on Anwar's involvement with organisations and individuals who figured prominently in the US military campaigns.

Citing an April 28, 2008 write-up in Time Magazine by former US deputy secretary of defense Paul Wolfowitz, Mukhriz asked why one of the chief strategists of the US war against Iraq was describing Anwar in such glowing terms.

"Why should Anwar be in cahoots with this murderer of more than one million Iraqis?" he asked.

Wolfowitz, who also headed the World Bank, is the same person whose girlfriend Shaha Ali Reza Anwar had been appointed to the neo-conservative NGO Foundation of the Future, Mukhriz alleged.

Reza's transfer had caused ripples when it was found that the transfer - arranged at Wolfowitz's behest - would raise Reza's salary by 36 percent, from US$133,000 (RM452,000) to US$193,590 (RM659,000).

Anwar has previously refuted the allegation that he was involved in Reza's appointment to Foundation of the Future, saying she was assigned to the organisation before he became its chairperson.

Mukhriz, however, went on to question the nature and background of Foundation of the Future, claiming that among its sources of funds is the US State Department.

Anonymous said...

Looks like the UMNOputras are at it again! Maybe Mukhriz benefitted from the policies his father has implemented under the guise of NEP - that is why he thinks something good came out of May 13.

Anonymous said...

Stupid Mukhriz ... he probably didn't have the time to consult anybody, so he made good things came out from May 13. His advisors forgot to tell him what is May 13 la .....

Anonymous said...

Kita tidak perlu takut kehabisan minyak kerana mempunyai banyak koridor koridor pembangunan...dan kita banyak modal insan yg berribu ribu berijazah dan tanpa kerja

Ini semua akan membuahkan potensi cerah untuk masa depan negara

MALAYSIA BOLIH LAGI!

I wonder whatever happened to the results of the scientific experiments carried out by our so called angkasawan and costing rm millions of ringgit?
Is it going to be published or is it being peer reviewed by the worlds eminent journals?

Anonymous said...

Bro, sorry to use your blog to make my issue known.
I am so happy I voted for PAKATAN RAKYAT. BN is good at wasting money and enriching themselves. Recently, my son who scored straight 10A1 was rejected a PSD scholarship. Hello, Pak Dollah wake up lah, ini modal insan that you been talking about. Well then again you only talk never walk the talk. Sad really sad. Dissappointed indian, Makkal Sakti, Makkal Sakti,Makkal Sakti

Anonymous said...

"RM100 juta kepada Kumpulan Wang Amanah Negara (KWAN)."

HA ha ha ha... what a fcking joke! normally these type of amanah negara stuff..IS ONLY FOR BUMIPUTRA. What about non bumis? We die our problem?

Anonymous said...

YB Tony,

I think after 2014 Malaysia would be going bankrupt esp. after the depletion of Petronas oil and if the BN still in the govt.

Anonymous said...

Wang Ehsan of RM3.76 billion channelled thru UMNO Terengganu ... refer Rocky Bru's blog:

Is this monstrous sum of money just to be allowed to disappear just like this? Is it something just for bloggers to write about and shout about? Is there no recourse that is opened to the rakyat? Can't this be brought up in the parliament? Cant' the newly-minted MPs from both sides of the aisle do something about it?
PAC, NGOs, Auditor-general, anyone?

Anonymous said...

It's sad to see that our government is still having that taking-things-for-granted attitude, while our time and resources are running out soon.

Being a mother, I can't help but feeling worry for our next generations.

Anonymous said...

Good question. I was wondering too if the government has a blueprint in facing the challenges of a dwindling petroleum reserves. Does the government has any plans to discourage personal cars ownership as what the Singapore government did?

What will happen to our automobile industries then?

Shouldn't we start putting serious efforts in building up our public transportation system now?