My only public view on this? Think market recovery 1, 2 or 3 years down the road.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Are We Out of the Bear Market Yet?
That of course, is the multi-million question. But the following chart email to me, and sourced from The Chart Store certainly looks interesting ;-)
My only public view on this? Think market recovery 1, 2 or 3 years down the road.
My only public view on this? Think market recovery 1, 2 or 3 years down the road.
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11 comments:
My view on this?
It's 5 years down the line before the Bull takes over.
But the Bull's place is only temporary because a different type of Bear, a bigger and stronger one, would come back to replace the Bull for another 10 years or so.
I might be wrong, but in my view, it's only going to get worse. So embrace yourself for tough road ahead.
Hi,
I certainly agree with your timing of recovery:1-3 years. But I want to know what are your reasons for such pessimism? Sounds like another Great Depression you are projecting.
Mac
Look at ot this way
1 Its worst recession since WW2
2 It involve massive global fiasco
I doubt it will end in one yr. Four tears like
That apply to most of the country but as for Malaysia...he...I think we are out of the global recovery track!
Unless, we conduct a major revamp on our economy such as a major overhual on NEP and its distribution channel.
The market may or may not have hit the bottom, its too hard to call but its clear recovery meaning jobs and income to most people is still far far away and that is what matters. Only the self-interested perverts of financial markets and equally perverted politicians care to shout about the current market movements...
To answer that question. you should consult your in-house economist.
The Dow and perhaps the KLCI may be headed for an upswing this year but it is a bear market trap.
The Msian government economic planners may think that all is well with the market rebound until they realise that the rally has very weak legs.
Remove the NEP and reform the judiciary. Then we will have a real rally.
The market is still resisitng a bottoming, so expect it to get worst and a very slow recovery in 2-3 years'.
I wd say buying some good shares now is a better bet than parking your money in the FD. It may take 3 yrs 5 yrs so what?
At the end the returns u get from investing in good shares will be many times better off than FD, 2% pa now.
All the best!
any tips? what are the good share. mutual funds better??? but all these funds also doing badly now.
tony,
you are turning too much into a politician, making such wide goalpost predictions of 1-3 yrs to cya. anyway cant blame you as every economist in the world cant get a handle on this.
however, you cannot use a chartist view to forecast a recession as chartist, or so called technical analysts, are day or short term traders, and they are quite accurate for such a time frame. for better read of recession/growth or longer term trends, fundamental signals paint a better picture. my gut feel is very pessimistic because almost all predictions have been revised downwards, such as recent events of spore gdp, and even malaysian gdp numbers. that means today's forecasts are missing the mark for actual numbers just 6-12mths down the road.
as for klse trading, it can be propped up for a short period of time, but over the long run, it still must obey the realities of the actual economic performance. for eg, you can only use so much epf $ and foreign reserves to shore up the klse index, and especially umno shares, and the RM.
but as forex reserves dwindle, and currency ratings get cut, then it becomes more costly to finance the government's borrowings. as you can recently see the government issuing bonds for domestic buyers, and not borrowing from the foreign market.
every central bank is now becoming a keynesian as they rush to print $ to pour into the economy in the hope of spending their way out of this recession. will this work?
well, since free markets have failed, the anti-thesis must work eh? i dont think so. we need to re-invent and charter into a brave new world of new economics to pull us out of this one, if we want only a short recession. otherwise, i believe this will be a long and painful time for everyone.
our best fengshui master, yap cheng hai predicted malaysia will only get out of this recession by 2013. ominous isnt it? so happens it falls on the next ge?
Chong, i am sorry becos i am not an expert.
But, i personally did buy some Maybank shares for long term investment.
I prefer government link stocks like MAS, TM and Tenaga.
People might tell u not to buy MAS becos MAS is making huge loses. But i dont care so long as the company will not go "chaplap".
And I did make some pocket money. I bought at RM2.50 and i sold at RM2.90 recently. It is RM3 now. I wont buy at RM3.
Cheers!
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