He said that EPF wanted to “increase exposure to a sector that has good long term prospects”. He also expects a 6% - 7% return on capital over one to two years. Beyond that, the returns could be as high as 8% to 10%. In addition, he cited that the decision was made to “protect EPF investment” rather than “let it go”.
Are these good or credible reason to take on significantly higher risks posed by the acquisition of a commercial bank?
- Firstly, as a prudent investment fund, the manner in which one should “increase exposure” to the banking sector is to make an evaluation of the various banks and invest in them according to their performance as well as the strength of their existing management. EPF should not be acquiring an entire bank, which is widely recognised as not among the leading performers, and then appoint new managers for the bank (because EPF itself has no expertise).
In addition, Datuk Azlan has stated that EPF intends to dispose its current interest in other, possibly better performing banking groups. Clearly the acquisition of RHB Bank has placed EPF in the awkward position of being a owner of a bank which conflicts with its charter as an objective fund manager seeking to invest in the best performing companies.
He added specifically that EPF will be disposing its equity holdings in other banks to avoid conflict of interests. This means that the decision to invest or divest is no longer a function of likely investment returns. Hence, has EPF sacrificed returns in exchange for the control of a bank?
A good and prudent fund manager does not increase its exposure to a sector by betting all its eggs in one basket, in this case, RHB. The RM10 billion new investment represents more than 20% of its RM49.6 billion equity allocation based on its 2005 Annual Report. Such disproportionate amount of investment in a single stock clearly represents poor portfolio allocation and diversification. - Secondly, it is curious how Datuk Azlan came up with his 6%-7% over one to two years, and as high as 10% thereafter. With no concrete plans presented as well as so much uncertainty over the future management and other new potential shareholders, did he pluck his estimates from thin air? Datuk Azlan also failed to mention that such aggressive returns also mean substantially higher risks for EPF which may very well result in equally substantial losses.
Datuk Azlan claimed that he could not remember that EPF's prior investment in RHB Bank which averages around RM10 per share, is worth only about RM4.60 today. And at its low, was worth only RM0.50, a 95% paper loss just two years ago. At the same time, despite predicting the higher returns, he refused to give an assurance that the life savings of the people will be protected, claiming that there is “no guarantee in business”. Will Datuk Azlan be prepared to resign as the CEO of EPF if the RHB investment does not generate the “expected returns”? - Thirdly, it is a very poor investment strategy to simply acquire the entire bank to protect its existing 31.7% stake. Such a strategy could easily backfire on EPF and its contributors. Any attempts to average down the cost of EPF's stake in the bank without an independent look at where RM10 billion will be able to generate better and less risky returns will just be a case of throwing good money after bad.
Clearly the above questions demonstrate that the entire acquisition by EPF Board was a “buy first, think later and hope for the best” exercise. EPF should stick to its charter to prudently manage the retirement funds of Malaysian workers utilising low risk strategies such as a diversified portfolio in equities to generate safe and reasonable returns. EPF has no business attempting to be a “business owner” which leads to re-aligned objectives and incentives as well as significantly higher risks.
10 comments:
Prudent investment? I think EPF contributors long ago expected sheenanigans. All they hope for is not for it to be a disaster like it has been before.
The immorality is accepted the same way the second-class citizenship of non-bumi is accepted.
The only thing that will get contributors up in arms against the EPF and government is stupidity and this deal is not a smart one. 6%-7% return over one or two years? That will not even beat the stock market index. THEN it expects 8%-10% return over a longer term? That is pure illogic. In a turnaround situation, the biggest returns are to be had in the first few years. If that don't happen, the investment is likely to be below-par.
You don't turnaround a bank slowly. Either its done quickly or it gets in the dump - forever - a candidate for takeover or liquidation. This is what Utama failed to do and paid the price for it. EPF is going to do the same thing UTAMA group did? What is the point then?
OFF TOPIC:
Tony,
The experimental theatre just behind DTC is still rotting with no progress in its renovation.
It has been in that state for many years and after a few VCs ruling UM.
Will you ask UM authorities to give a public statement on the status of the renovation of the experimental theatre or if and when will it ever get completed. Or maybe UM would like it to be demolished?
Its a real eyesore and a waste of architectural beauty
The million dollar question: What is the real reason to purchase RHB?
as usual,
smelling fishy,
with million million commissions
hidden agenda, plus.......
esp. with a management with no
track records..
is rhb in such a bad shape that no local company wants it, and epf has to step in else it becomes kuwait control?
could it be that the govt didn;t want another pantai hospital booboo, and pushhing epf into the picture?
lulu wondering...
The EPF is a customary kitty to the rescue in Corporate Malaysia. I recall when UBG was bailing out Rashid Hussain (the man) and took over RHB, EPF's interest was no where near the 31% it now has (and soon to get even bigger). To prod UBG along towards bailing out Rashid, EPF generously took up bigger investments in RHB Group which was in deep trouble even then (2002). Why didnt the public make any noise then? This is symptomatic of the malaise mauling Malaysia. We put up with wrongs because they are small and there are "bigger fights". Tony, look at all malaise, and battle everyone of them. Find people who would concentrate on individual issues and articulate them. I'd start with the ills of the NEP and pro-bumiputra policies to be the first target. Kill it now.
Why didn't those pea brains aquire the highway concessionaires, where the return is "GUARANTEED FOR 30-40 years" and it's in the high 15% - 20% annual return per year, some even as high as 25% return per year? Talk about stupidity!
The reason they don't acquire highway concessionaires instead is because this won't be approved by UMNO cronies who own such highway concessionaires. The money is for them and their families, not to be shared by the public! stupid voters pls wake up and vote BN out in the next election! Let us sack the most corrupted liar and hypocrite Pak Lah before we talk about fighting corruption! Vote for DAP or Keadilan!
""The reason they don't acquire highway concessionaires instead is because this won't be approved by UMNO cronies who own such highway concessionaires. The money is for them and their families, not to be shared by the public!
--- not political cronies, one level UP, the so-called
but SUPER VVVVVVIP own it.
OFF TOPIC:
Is it true Razak Baginda lawyer has left Lee Hissamudin Allen Gledhill Associates ?
Doesnt the legal firm represent Razak Baginda now?
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